Positive News for Obama

With elections just a year away, many people have been questioning if President Obama has a viable chance to win reelection. With his approval rating plummeting since taking office and support with his key groups at a new low many people are wondering if he can win or not. President Obama’s most difficult task since taking office has been tackling the high unemployment rates. Majority of the people are not happy with how is handling the unemployment situation. However, this past week President Obama received some good news in term of people unemployed in the United States.

As reported in my earlier blog, President Obama faces a scary statistic. No incumbent president has ever won reelection with an unemployment rate above 7.2 percent (Soltis). President Obama has been trying to battle that high unemployment with his American Jobs Act, but it did not get enough cloture votes. However, President Obama did receive good news last week. The November unemployment rate fell to 8.6 percent from 9 percent in October (Lee and Parsons). In November the economy gained 140,000 private jobs while losing 20,000 public jobs (Lee and Parsons). Many of those jobs were in retail. “Retailers last month boosted their head counts by 50,000, the second-largest holiday hiring in November in a decade” (Lee and Parsons). The average monthly rate of creation of new jobs over the past three months has been 143,000 jobs which is almost twice the number of news jobs that were created a month over the summer (Lee and Parsons). Also, November is the 21^st   consecutive month to show job growth in the private market (Lee and Parsons). Another positive note for President Obama is the fact that unemployment rate has not been this low since March of 2009 (Lee and Parsons). However, as positive as this new number is there are still millions of people out there who are unemployed. Speaker John Boehner echoed this sentiment by saying that “the jobless rate in this country is still unacceptable” (Lee and Parsons). I have to agree with Boehner on this one. Although, this is a positive sign, we need to be posting these kind of unemployment rate decreases every month. Since November was a holiday month, it would be interesting to see how many of those jobs were temporary in preparation for the holiday.

Another scary statistic facing President Obama is his approval rating. No incumbent president has won reelection with an approval rating of less than 48 percent (Soltis). Compared to that his November approval rating of 43 percent is not looking very promising (Jones). Although, it is an improvement from the 41 percent it was back in August it is still very low (Jones). Only President Carters who had 40 percent approval rating November of his third term, had a third year November job approval rate below President Obamas (Jones). According to Jones, “All recently elected presidents were at or above 50% in December of their third year in office.”  The most recent three presidents had approval ratings from the low to mid fifties (Jones).  George H. W Bush had November approval rate of 56 percent, Bill Clinton 53 percent, and George W. Bush had 52 percent (Jones). If President Obama wins reelection, his November numbers would be a stark contrast to theirs.

The 2012 elections will be very interesting to watch. Congress’s approval rating is even less than President Obama’s. With the “Occupy Wall Street” movement and more people calling for higher taxes on the rich, I wonder if a Republican can really win no matter how unpopular President Obama is right now. It will be interesting to see what happens in the upcoming year.

                                                                    Works Cited

Jones, Jeffrey. "Obama's November Approval Weak From Historical Perspective." Gallup.Com - Daily News, Polls, Public Opinion on Government, Politics, Economics, Management. Web. 04 Dec. 2011. http://www.gallup.com/poll/151106/Obama-November-Approval-Weak-Historical-Perspective.aspx.

 

Lee, Don, and Christi Parsons. "U.S. Unemployment Rate Falls to 8.6% - Los Angeles Times." Featured Articles From The Los Angeles Times. 02 Dec. 2011. Web. 04 Dec. 2011. http://articles.latimes.com/2011/dec/02/business/la-fi-jobs-20111203.

 

Soltis, Kristen. "Kristen Soltis: Is Obama Destined to Win or Doomed to Fail?" Breaking News and Opinion on The Huffington Post. Web. 04 Dec. 2011. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kristen-soltis/is-obama-destined-to-win_b_1124431.html>.

Herman Cain Suspends Campaign

              This Saturday Herman Cain announced that he will no longer be running for the bid of Republican presidential nominee. During the last month Cain has been plagued by rumors of affairs and sexual harassment charges from years ago. While at first he was not addressing the rumors, lately he has been denying any sexual misconduct ever happened. He even held a news conference where he said that the rumors were no true and that he would even take a lie detector test to prove his innocence. At the news conference last month he said that he would not pull out of the race believing that he is the best choice for the American people.

However, it seems like the recent accusations of a thirteen year affairs by Ginger White proved to be just too much for the businessman (Daly). White claims that it was a sexual relationship and that Cain even gave her money at times (Daly). Cain, on the other hand, claims that it was only a friendship (Daly). But it seems like the new accusations had had an effect on the campaign since, just a week after the allegations came out Herman declared that he would be suspending his campaign saying “"I am suspending my presidential campaign because of the continued distractions, the continued hurt caused on me and my family” (Blackmon and Yadron). He also announced his new venture working on a new website www.thecainsolutions.com (Blackmon and Yadron). In addition he said that he would endorse a candidate in the upcoming future (Blackmon and Yadron).

At first Cain supporters were not affected by the allegations.  However, as more women started to surfaces Cain support began to falter. A poll by the Des Moines Register released just a day before Cain suspended his campaign showed that only 8 percent of voters said they would support him at the Iowa caucus (Daly).  Only a month ago Cain had 24 percent of voter support in Iowa (Daly).  It seems like Herman Cain’s remaining supports will be divided about the two front runners Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. Newt Gingrich is leading Mitt Romney in the Iowa polls, which is the first in the nation to hold its caucus on January 3^rd (Babington and Fouhy). A poll released this weekend by the Des Moines Register found that Gingrich is leading in Iowa with 25 percent support of the people likely to vote in the Iowa caucus (Babington and Fouhy). Ron Paul is in second place with 18 percent of likely votes in Iowa (Babington and Fouhy). Mitt Romney is in third place with only 16 percent of the votes (Babington and Fouhy).

Herman Cain’s endorsement for a candidate will not only be beneficial to that person supporter wise, but also financially. Since the Federal Election Commission does not discuss the meaning of suspension of a campaign, technically Herman Cain can still raise funds until he officially puts an end to his campaign (Eggen and Sonmez). After Herman Cain puts an end to his campaign the Federal Election Commission rules allow him to then transfer his funds to candidate or political committee (Eggen and Sonmez). I think that whoever Cain endorses will also receive his remaining funds. I am interested in seeing who Cain will endorse and whether or not he will transfer his funds to that candidate. Even though, I will miss the sometimes crazy things Cain says, I think he made the smart choice. He has been losing support with the voters. And with more and more allegations surfacing I think it was very unlikely that he would receive the nomination.

                                                                Works Cited

Babington, Charles, and Beth Fouhy. "Romney, Gingrich Proceed Carefully in GOP Showdown - ABC News." ABCNews.com: Daily News, Breaking News and Video Broadcasts - ABC News. Web. 04 Dec. 2011. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/romney-gingrich-proceed-carefully-gop-showdown-15080240.

 

Blackmon, Douglas, and Danny Yadron. "Herman Cain Suspends Campaign - WSJ.com." Business News & Financial News - The Wall Street Journal - Wsj.com. Web. 04 Dec. 2011. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204826704577076491325757510.html.

 

Daly, Corbett B. "Ginger White Apologizes to Herman Cain's Wife, Kids - Political Hotsheet - CBS News." Breaking News Headlines: Business, Entertainment & World News - CBS News. Web. 04 Dec. 2011. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57335433-503544/ginger-white-apologizes-to-herman-cains-wife-kids/?utm_source=feedburner.

 

Eggen, Dan, and Felicia Sonmez. "Cain’s Exit Gives Him Financial Flexibility - The Washington Post." Washington Post: Breaking News, World, US, DC News & Analysis. Web. 04 Dec. 2011. <http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/cains-exit-gives-him-financial-flexibility/2011/12/04/gIQAnUyfSO_story.html>.

Political Ads and Undecided Voters

Mr. Mahe and Mr. Strother discuss campaign advertising. I thought it was interesting of Mr. Strother, who is a political consultant, to say that undecided voters sometimes decide last minute and that is why political campaigns usually run ads up to the last minute. He also says that this is because it takes people a long time to decide. He thinks that some voters “subconsciously” have somebody in mind who they want to vote for, but “consciously” they have not decided up until the last minute. This point confused me because I do not understand how you can subconsciously pick a candidate. He also said his consulting group will be running ads up until decision time.
This is interesting because it goes against what Garin's statements since
Garin said that at a certain point people stop listening to political campaign ads.
Mr. Strother’s remark sounds dangerous and irresponsible to me. I would prefer that voters have a candidate in mind and research them and their policies ahead of time. It seems a little irresponsible to me if people allow themselves to be influenced by ads.

Obama and the “Lazy” Debacle

Last weekend, President Obama was in attendance at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in Hawaii (Allen and Isenstadt). When discussing foreign investment in America, President Obama said the following, “Well, this is an issue, generally. I think it's important to remember that the United States is still the largest recipient of foreign investment in the world. And there are a lot of things that make foreign investors see the U.S. as a great opportunity — our stability, our openness, our innovative free market culture. But we've been a little bit lazy, I think, over the last couple of decades. We've kind of taken for granted — well, people will want to come here and we aren't out there hungry, selling America and trying to attract new business into America”(Farley).
Although, Obama says that American have been a LITTLE lazy in attracting new foreign investors he clearly said nothing about Americans being lazy. Aside from the remark, Obama actually complimented the United States by saying that we are still the country with the most foreign investment which is because of our great attributes as a country. However, Republican politicians have been distorting President Obama’s comment and taking it completely out of context. First, Rick Perry tried to use the sound bite to make voters believe that Obama was calling the American public lazy in general. Perry actually made a political ad in which he uses that clip, however, he distorts the context of the clip because he makes it seem like President Obama was calling Americans lazy as a whole. The ad starts with the clip of Obama saying “we've been a little bit lazy, I think, over the last couple of decades.” However, the original question is not included, so unless the viewer knew the context of the question, then the viewer is lead to believe that Obama was saying that about all Americans. In addition, the clip does not include Obama’s previous or following remarks after that particular sentence.
In his previous remarks, Obama actually complimented the United States. After the clip, Rick Perry comes on and asks if the viewer can believe that President Obama said that Americans being lazy is what is wrong with our country and called it pathetic. He said that it is time for a balanced budget and concluded the ad by saying that President Obama and his “socialist” policies are bankrupting our country. After watching the ad, the only thing that was pathetic to me was Rick Perry. Rick Perry loses all credibility because he was not being honest and twisted the context of President Obama’s remarks.
Mitt Romney also accused President Obama of calling Americans lazy. In South Carolina, Romney said the following, “Sometimes I just don't think that President Obama understands America. Now I say that because this week, or was it last week, he said that Americans are lazy. I don’t think that describes America” (Huffington Post). However as Obama’s full quote proves, he was never calling Americans lazy. He was only saying that Americans have been lazy in attracting new foreign investors. Even though, I think President Obama used the wrong choice of words I am disappointed by how the Republican politicians have distorted the context of his remarks. However, I also understand that the election is a year away and attack ads will become more commonplace on television. As Carl Forti, a Republican political consultant, said about the clip, “You will definitely see more of it. It’s definitely something campaigns will use” ( Allen and Isenstadt). I can only hope that the general public is well-informed enough to know exactly what President Obama said. I also hope that President Obama thinks about his word choices better next time.




Works Cited

Allen, Jonathan, and Alex Isenstadt. "Obama's 'lazy' Remark Catches Fire - Jonathan Allen and Alex Isenstadt - POLITICO.com." Politics, Political News - POLITICO.com. Web. 20 Nov. 2011. .

Farley, Robert. "Fact Check: Obama's 'lazy' Comment Taken out of Context." News, Travel, Weather, Entertainment, Sports, Technology, U.S. & World - USATODAY.com. Web. 20 Nov. 2011. .

Post, Huffington. "Mitt Romney Criticizes Barack Obama's 'Lazy' APEC Remark." Breaking News and Opinion on The Huffington Post. Web. 20 Nov. 2011. .

Committee Likely to Fail, Romney Blames the President

This past summer, the American public waited in anticipation for the Republican controlled Congress and President Obama to reach an agreement that would avert the first ever American default on our loans. A compromise was reached that allowed the United States to raise its borrowing limit and prevent a default; however, the government had to make cuts in different programs over a certain number of years. The agreement proposed “$2.4 trillion in spending cuts over 10 years ” and $900 billion immediate cuts (New York Times). As part of this agreement a bipartisan committee was established in order to reach an agreement about the best ways to reduce the deficit, however, if the members did not reach an agreement by a certain time then automatic cuts would be made in education, defense, Medicare, and transportation (New York Times).
This bipartisan committee is comprised of 12 Democrats and Republicans. There are 3 Democrat Senators and 3 Republican Senators as well as 3 Democrat House members and 3 Republican House members. The Democrat’s side includes Senator Patty Murray, Senator Max Baucus, Senator John Kerry, Representative Xavier Becerra, Representative Chris Van Hollen, and Representative James Clyburn (Cowan, Drawbaugh, Ferraro, Smith). The Republican’s side includes Senator Rob Portman, Senator Jon Kyl, Senator Patrick Toomey, Representative Jeb Hensarling, Representative Dave Camp, and Representative Fred Upton (Cowan, Drawbaugh, Ferraro, Smith). The deadline for the agreement is November 23rd by which time the agreement would be sent to Congress for a vote (Cowan, Drawbaugh, Ferraro, Smith). However, with only three days to go it is becoming more likely that an agreement will not be reached.

RJ Matson http://yubanet.com/cartoon/Super-Duper-Committee.php


It seems like the main issue that the committee cannot agree on is an increase in taxes on the wealthiest Americans. It should not come as a surprise, because much of the debt ceiling debate was structured around raising taxes on the richest Americans. During the summer President Obama kept reiterating how it was unfair that some of the richest Americans pay a lower tax percentange than the average middle class household. Patty Murray said the following on CNN, “That's the Bush tax cuts. In making sure that any kind of package includes everybody coming to the table and the wealthiest of Americans, those who earn over a million dollars every year, have to share, too. And that line in the sand, we haven't seen any Republicans willing to cross yet”(Delaney). Jon Kyl countered with, “In Washington, there are folks who won't cut a dollar unless we raise taxes .If you want to get serious about the deficit our country has to grow economically. You can't grow if you raise taxes in the middle of a recession” on NBC (Bolduan and Desjardins). It seems like both sides are not willing to budge when it comes to taxes.
Since it seems like an agreement will not be reached in time, some politicians want to stop the automatic cuts in programs that will happen if the committee does not agree on a compromise. Jon Kyl has expressed that he wants Congress to stop the automatic cuts in defense (Stein). Mitt Romney agreed that defense cuts are a bad idea and has blamed President Obama for the imminent failure. In New Hampshire Romney said the following, “It is another example of failed leadership. I call on the President of the United States to immediately introduce legislation that restores that cut to our military, we cannot put the United States’ security at jeopardy by virtue of the failure of this committee and the failure of his leadership”(Friedman). However, I do not think it is the President that is to blame here, but the members who are too partisan to reach a compromise. Senator Kyl cannot have it both ways. The automatic defense cuts should not be eliminated because the committee knew the consequences of their actions or vacillations.

Works Cited

Bolduan, Kate, and Lisa Desjardins. "Aides: 'Super Committee' Likely to Announce Failure to Reach Debt Deal - CNN.com." CNN.com - Breaking News, U.S., World, Weather, Entertainment & Video News. Web. 20 Nov. 2011. .

Cowan, Richard, Kevin Drawbaugh, Thomas Ferraro;, and Donna Smith. "Factbox: Deficit Super Committee's 12 Members| Reuters." Business & Financial News, Breaking US & International News | Reuters.com. 07 Nov. 2011. Web. 20 Nov. 2011. .

Delaney, Arthur. "Super Committee Failure: Bush Tax Cuts Obstacle To Deal." Breaking News and Opinion on The Huffington Post. Web. 20 Nov. 2011. .

"Federal Debt Ceiling - The New York Times." Times Topics - The New York Times. 20 Nov. 2011. Web. 20 Nov. 2011. .

Friedman, Emily. "Romney Blames Obama for Expected Failure of Super Committee." Abcnews.go.com. ABC News. Web. .

Stein, Sam. "Super Committee Member Jon Kyl Turns Eye Towards Saving Pentagon From Trigger Cuts." Breaking News and Opinion on The Huffington Post. Web. 20 Nov. 2011. .

Televised Political Ads Part II

Michael Murphy discussed the ads he made for Bob Dole. One of the ads was to differentiate Dole from Bush and the other was a “bio” ad. Garin says that the ads were good, but by that time it was almost too late because the campaign had “taken a life of its own.”
Geoffrey Garin makes a point that I found very interesting. He said that by a certain point political tv ads do not matter as much. Garin says that when other sources, such as the news, start airing more information about the candidates, then people stop relying on political ads less. I think this is both good and bad for the candidates. It is good that people are relying on other sources, so you competition cannot influence the constituents with negative ads. However, it is also bad because at a certain point ads are not as influential so a candidate has to find other ways to make the public aware of something.

Televised Political Ads Part I

Michael Murphy, a Republican Political Consultant, and Geoffrey Garin, a Democratic Political Consultant, discuss televised campaign ads. Garin says a good ad presents an issue and a problem and the candidate as the solution to that problem. He says that the Mondale “red phone” ad is a good example of an ad that does that. Murphy adds that the information in ads has to be factual because credibility is very important.
I watched the red phone ad and it is very persuasive. The commercial makes Gary Hart sound inexperienced and not knowledgeable and puts Mondale as the right candidate because he has the experience. I think this type of ad construction that presents a problem and the candidate as the answer, is very compelling.